The odds calculation combines confirmed earned points with expected future points across all remaining rounds, based on team probability data from MoneyPuck simulations.
1. Confirmed Points
Points already earned from completed series are locked in. These include:
- Base points for correctly picking series winners
- Bonus points for correctly predicting the number of games
2. Expected Future Points
Since all participants submit picks for every round upfront, expected points are calculated for all remaining rounds simultaneously — not just the current one. This means a participant's Cup winner pick and Finals pick influence their odds from Day 1.
For each pick in each remaining round, expected points are calculated as:
Round 1 (if still in progress):
- Team advancement: 4 points × team's probability of making 2nd round
- Games bonus: 2 points × probability of winning in predicted number of games
Round 2 (if not yet complete):
- Team advancement: 6 points × team's probability of making 3rd round
- Games bonus: 3 points × probability of winning in predicted number of games
Round 3 (if not yet complete):
- Team advancement: 8 points × team's probability of making finals
- Games bonus: 4 points × probability of winning in predicted number of games
Finals (if not yet complete):
- Team winning: 10 points × team's probability of winning the Cup
- Games bonus: 5 points × probability of winning in predicted number of games
- Cup winner bonus: 10 points × Cup winning probability (if Cup winner pick matches Finals pick)
When game-specific probabilities are not yet available, the fallback is: advancement probability ÷ 4 (assuming roughly equal likelihood across 4, 5, 6, or 7 game outcomes).
3. Win Probability Calculation
For each participant:
- Sum their confirmed points and all expected future points across all remaining rounds
- Identify which participants are still mathematically able to win the pool (i.e., their maximum possible points exceed the current leader's confirmed points)
- Among those still in contention, calculate each participant's share of total estimated points
- Participants who are mathematically eliminated show 0%
Example: Early in Round 1
A participant picked Colorado to win Round 2 in 5 games, and Colorado to win the Cup. Colorado currently has:
- 56.4% chance to make the 3rd round
- 18.2% chance to win the Cup
Their expected points from these picks would be:
- Round 2 team: 6 × 0.564 = 3.38 points
- Round 2 games (fallback): 3 × (0.564 ÷ 4) = 0.42 points
- Finals team: 10 × 0.182 = 1.82 points
- Cup winner bonus: 10 × 0.182 = 1.82 points
- Total from these picks: ~7.44 expected points
This is added to expected points from all other picks across all rounds, then combined with confirmed points to determine final odds.
The algorithm uses several probability metrics for each team, sourced from MoneyPuck daily simulations:
- make_2nd_round: Probability of advancing past Round 1
- make_3rd_round: Probability of advancing past Round 2
- make_final: Probability of advancing past Round 3
- win_cup: Probability of winning the Stanley Cup
- win_round1_in_X: Probability of winning Round 1 in exactly X games
- win_round2_in_X: Probability of winning Round 2 in exactly X games (when available)
- win_round3_in_X: Probability of winning Round 3 in exactly X games (when available)
- win_finals_in_X: Probability of winning Finals in exactly X games (when available)
These probabilities are updated daily. If a team has been eliminated, their expected future points are set to 0.