Pool Odds Algorithm

Round 1:

• Correct team: 4 points
• Correct number of games: +2 bonus points

Round 2:

• Correct team: 6 points
• Correct number of games: +3 bonus points

Round 3:

• Correct team: 8 points
• Correct number of games: +4 bonus points

Finals:

• Correct team: 10 points
• Correct number of games: +5 bonus points
• Correct Stanley Cup winner prediction: +10 bonus points

The odds calculation combines current earned points with expected future points based on team probabilities:

1. Current Points

Points already earned from completed series are locked in. These include:

• Base points for correctly picking series winners
• Bonus points for correctly predicting the number of games

2. Expected Future Points

For ongoing and upcoming series, expected points are calculated using team probability data:

Round 1:

• Team advancement (4 points × team's probability of making 2nd round)
• Games bonus (2 points × probability of winning in predicted number of games)

Round 2:

• Team advancement (6 points × team's probability of making 3rd round)
• Games bonus (3 points × probability of winning in predicted number of games, or advancement probability if game-specific odds not available)

Round 3:

• Team advancement (8 points × team's probability of making finals)
• Games bonus (4 points × probability of winning in predicted number of games, or advancement probability if game-specific odds not available)

Finals:

• Team winning (10 points × team's probability of winning cup)
• Games bonus (5 points × probability of winning in predicted number of games, or cup winning probability if game-specific odds not available)
• Cup winner bonus (10 points × cup winning probability)

3. Final Probability Calculation

For each participant:

1. Sum their current points and all expected future points
2. Calculate their percentage of total expected points across all participants
3. Round to two decimal places to get final win probability

Example 1: Using Game-Specific Probabilities

Let's say a participant picked Toronto to win a Round 2 series in 6 games and Toronto has:

• 51.0% chance to make conference finals
• 25.0% chance to win Round 2 in exactly 6 games

Their expected points for this pick would be:

• Team advancement: 6 points × 0.510 = 3.06 points
• Games bonus: 3 points × 0.250 = 0.75 points
• Total expected: 3.81 points

Example 2: Using Advancement Probability as Proxy

If game-specific probabilities aren't available yet, and Toronto has:

• 51.0% chance to make conference finals

Their expected points would be calculated using the advancement probability:

• Team advancement: 6 points × 0.510 = 3.06 points
• Games bonus: 3 points × 0.510 = 1.53 points
• Total expected: 4.59 points

This calculation process is done for all picks and rounds, then combined with current points to determine final odds.

The algorithm uses several probability metrics for each team:

• make_2nd_round: Probability of advancing past Round 1
• make_3rd_round: Probability of advancing past Round 2
• make_final: Probability of advancing past Round 3
• win_cup: Probability of winning the Stanley Cup
• win_round1_in_X: Probability of winning Round 1 in exactly X games
• win_round2_in_X: Probability of winning Round 2 in exactly X games (when available)
• win_round3_in_X: Probability of winning Round 3 in exactly X games (when available)
• win_finals_in_X: Probability of winning Finals in exactly X games (when available)

These probabilities are updated daily based on current playoff standings and team performance. For rounds where game-specific probabilities are not yet available, the algorithm uses the general advancement probability as a proxy for calculating bonus points.